Is the turning point for the transformation of the

2022-09-22
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Is the turning point of the transformation of the automotive industry reached

according to the data recently released by the China Automobile Industry Association, the overall sales volume of Chinese cars in September was 2.394 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.6%, and the tradition of "golden nine and silver ten" is no longer. In fact, the decline in car sales is not limited to China, but also globally. Although insiders have analyzed many factors, such as the confidence problems caused by the trade war, these are short-term factors. Behind this depression lies a major turning point of "business transformation"

technology and system have always been the two wheels driving the transformation of industrial formats. The automotive industry is also undergoing "four modernizations" changes, namely electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing. The first three are to change the appearance of cars from the level of technology and relevance, while sharing is to update the attributes of cars from the level of use, and there should be changes in the level of management system. Just as cars replace carriages, no matter how good horse breeding technology is not enough to stop the decline in the number of horses, if the business model that the automotive industry has been relying on no longer exists, it will certainly have an impact on the scale of the automotive consumer market

from the perspective of the consumer side, the value preservation of automotive products is poor, and the investment attribute is not strong. Many people buy cars on impulse. In fact, the frequency of using cars is not high. It is possible to buy a car and drive it for only a few days a month. Therefore, the consumption concept of "taking a taxi is better than buying a car" has gradually taken root in the hearts of consumers, and sharing cars has become the most travel choice. In addition to traditional car rental, new business forms such as car hailing, hitchhiking and time-sharing leasing have sprung up

from the perspective of the supply side, the reform is also in full swing. Based on the sharing economy, greengo, a subsidiary of BAIC group, currently has 200000 registered members and 5000 vehicles. Famous foreign car companies Daimler and BMW funded the establishment of car2go company. As long as you find the car closest to you, you can take a direct look at the daily maintenance destination of the horizontal tensile testing machine. It is transforming from selling cars to selling services. Whether at home or abroad, many car companies have accelerated into the construction or cooperation of sharing platforms

if the future value source of the automotive industry is services rather than products, more and more companies will be able to build transportation service projects and meet the "soft requirements" of customers. In fact, traditional car companies do not have an advantage in this regard, and many new players flock to them. More than 190 domestic sharing platforms have received financing, of which the financing amount of shared cars has reached 76.4 billion yuan (the total amount is 115.9 billion yuan). Some insiders pointed out that it is expected that by 2020, the number of domestic shared car operators will reach 10000, and the cumulative scale of vehicles will reach 1million

if the average annual growth rate of shared vehicles increases by more than 15% with that of Japan and China, how much private car purchase demand will there be? Japanese economic commentator Kenichi Ohama made a judgment in an interview with diamond magazine, "the average annual demand in the future is one tenth of the current level." Generally, taxis and shared vehicles can travel 100000-200000 kilometers a year, while household vehicles generally travel 10000-20000 kilometers, almost twice the difference. In simple terms, 20million shared vehicles are equivalent to the total services provided by 200million to 400million household vehicles. If shared cars can offset the use of billion household cars in the global car stock of more than one billion cars, consumers really don't need to buy new cars at the current speed. Instead, the "metabolism" of 20million shared cars will become the pillar of new car sales

with the development of sharing economy, which has successfully shortened the number of customer periods to less than one month, it can be expected that the automotive industry will undergo essential changes in the next 10 years. For car companies, the decline in car sales is indeed worthy of attention, but it is more worth thinking about how to deal with it after the "inflection point". (the author is the director of the network economy and knowledge management research center at the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences)

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